Military Drills and Port Blockades: China-Europe Railway Express
In recent weeks, Poland has conducted large-scale military exercises that involved restricting access to key maritime trade gateways. During certain periods, commercial shipping was delayed or entirely prevented from docking, leading to a sudden backlog of containers at ports like Gdańsk and Gdynia. Ships waiting at anchorage faced delays in loading/unloading, and export schedules were disrupted.
How Container Congestion Mounts
Accumulation at Port Entrances: Ships queuing outside the port increase demurrage costs and tie up valuable vessel hours.
Terminal Overflow: Once ships are allowed in, terminals often don’t have enough space or labor to process the backlog quickly, leading to yard overflows.
Supply Chain Knock-On Effects: Downstream logistics – trucks, warehouses, importers/exporters – all face delays and increased costs; order fulfillment slows, inventory costs rise.
The Role and Limits of Rail Transport as an Alternative
With sea access blocked or restricted, many shippers look to rail to bypass maritime delays. However, shifting to rail isn’t always a viable panacea.
Constraints on Rail Freight
Capacity Constraints
Rail lines and wagons have fixed capacity. Sudden surges in demand often exceed what the existing rolling stock and network can handle.Transit Time Variability
Even when available, rail routes may be slower, especially when dealing with customs, switching points, or transloading between modes.Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Station yards, border crossings, and intermodal terminals might not be prepared for large container volumes; congestion there can mirror that at ports.Cost Differences
Rail transport tends to be more expensive per TEU-kilometer compared to sea when distances are long, especially for certain cargo types. When sea access is disrupted, these higher costs eat into margins.Coordination & Scheduling
Rail tends to require more advance planning; you need allocated train paths, availability of wagons, scheduling of handling equipment. Sudden switches to rail may run up against rigid schedules or limited flexibility.
Broader Impacts: Economy, Trade Relations, and Strategy
Economic Costs: Delays cost money — increased freight, demurrage, warehousing, lost business if goods arrive late or not at all.
Trade Relations Strained: Exporters depending on consistent timing suffer; perishable goods are especially vulnerable.
Supply Chain Risk Exposure: Firms realize their reliance on maritime shipping is a vulnerability; just-in-time models become riskier.
Strategic Reassessment: Governments and private sector may push more investment into intermodal infrastructure, diversifying trade corridors, and better contingency planning.
Lessons & Possibilities for Mitigation
Advance Risk Planning: Shippers should map alternate routes ahead of time and understand the cost/time trade-offs.
Intermodal Expansion: Building more rail-sea-road transfer nodes can help distribute load when one mode is blocked.
Infrastructure Investments: Ports need to boost yard capacity, gate throughput, and labor flexibility; rail networks need more wagons, better cross-border coordination.
Policy Transparency: Military exercises or other governmental actions that might disrupt trade should be planned with disclosure and buffer periods so that businesses can adjust.
Use of Technology & Data: Real-time monitoring of congestion, predictive analytics, better visibility across the supply chain can help stakeholders respond more dynamically.
Reflection: Can Rail Ever Truly Replace Sea in Times of Disruption?
While rail offers an alternative, it is rarely a perfect substitute for maritime shipping when volumes are large, routes are long, and infrastructure is optimized for sea. The very factors that make sea freight dominant — high capacity, lower per-unit cost over long distances, flexibility of routes — are hard to match by rail quickly. So, in disruptions like port blockades, rail may serve as a valuable buffer or relief valve, but not a full replacement.
